Bulletin of Mathematical Biology

In a recent article in Science, Shenhar et al. report that human life span heritability reaches [~]55% after removing "extrinsic" mortality, roughly seven-fold higher than recent large pedigree estimates. This conclusion rests on classifying deaths from infections and accidents as environmental noise independent of genetics. This premise is biologically untenable: susceptibility to severe infection is substantially heritable, with adoptee studies showing relative risks exceeding 5 for infection ...

Human contact network structure fundamentally shapes infectious disease transmission and control. Most COVID-19 epidemic models assumed approximately homogeneous contact patterns, yet real-world networks are highly heterogeneous. We analysed 59,585 daily non-household contact reports from Germanys COVIMOD study (2020-2021) using a novel heavy-tail regression framework. Throughout the pandemic, contact distributions remained strongly heavy-tailed despite substantial non-pharmaceutical interventio...

Schistosomiasis is a neglected parasitic disease caused by various trematode species of the genus Schistosoma for which 251 million people needed treatment in 2021. Many mathematical models of Schistosoma mansoni transmission incorporate the effect of chemoprophylaxis on parasite burden within the human host. While praziquantel is the most commonly implemented pharmaceutical used to control schistosomiasis, due to its applicability over several species and its negligible side effects, it is not ...

With significant population fractions in many societies who refuse vaccines, it is important to reconsider how vaccination is incorporated into compartmental epidemiology models. It is still most common to apply the vaccination rate to the entire class of susceptibles, rather than to use the more realistic assumption that the vaccination rate function should depend only on the population of susceptibles who are willing and able to receive a vaccination. This study uses a simple generic disease m...

The COVID-19 pandemic has presented severe challenges in understanding and predicting the spread of infectious diseases, necessitating innovative approaches beyond traditional epidemiological models. This study introduces an advanced method for automated model discovery using the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) algorithm, leveraging a dataset from the COVID-19 outbreak in Thuringia, Germany, encompassing over 400,000 patient records and vaccination data. By analysing this dat...

Epigenetic clocks estimate biological age from DNA methylation patterns at CpG sites, providing robust predictions of mortality and morbidity risk. "Blue zones"--regions of exceptional longevity--offer a unique opportunity to investigate how biological aging diverges from chronological age. However, standard clocks are typically trained on large, heterogeneous datasets, reflecting average population trends rather than region-specific dynamics. Using data from the Costa Rican Longevity and Health...

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is considerably more severe among individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), leading to higher parasite loads, frequent relapse, and increased mortality. To examine the epidemiological interaction between the two diseases, we develop a comprehensive VL-HIV co-infection model that incorporates transmission pathways, treatment effects, and relapse dynamics. The model is parameterized using real-time data from Bihar, India, including monthly VL-only an...

BackgroundVaccines can prevent severe disease by preventing infection or by reducing progression among those who become infected. Vaccine effectiveness against progression given infection is often used to quantify this second mechanism, but it conditions on infection, which is itself affected by vaccination. As a result, this estimand lacks a clear causal interpretation and may behave non-intuitively over time. MethodsWe introduce a conceptual framework that models protection against infection ...

Lower-grade gliomas (World Health Organization [WHO] grades 2-3) exhibit variable treatment responses, yet clinical decisions remain guided by population-level trial results. Standard causal survival forests estimate treatment effects at individual time horizons but lack methodology to synthesize these into interpretable temporal trajectories. Here, we apply the Causal Analysis of Survival Trajectories (CAST) framework, a recently developed extension of causal survival forests that synthesizes h...

PurposeTo develop and validate a prediction model for sleep apnea syndrome (SAS) treated with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) in the general population. MethodsUsing claims and health checkup data held by JMDC Inc., linked to personal health records (Pep Up), we developed and internally validated a prediction model for SAS treated with CPAP, defined as a diagnosis of SAS and reimbursement records of CPAP. Every three months from January 1, 2022 to July 1, 2024 (i.e., 11 timepoints), ...

BackgroundPATZ1 fusion-positive central nervous system (CNS) tumors frequently harbor MN1::PATZ1 fusions as driver mutations, provisionally classified as a rare DNA methylation class of low-grade neuroepithelial tumors. Radiographically, they resemble pilocytic astrocytomas with tumor and cystic components, but their supratentorial cortex location and higher recurrence rates are distinguishing features. An intermediate clinical course, despite focal high-grade histopathology, underscores the nee...

Immunotherapy with immune checkpoint inhibitors and immunotherapy combined with chemotherapy have represented promising treatments for NSCLC patients leading to prolonged survival. However, the majority of patients with advanced NSCLC have a poor prognosis. The identification and development of biomarkers for stratifying responders and non responders to immune checkpoint inhibitors contribute to unravel the mechanism of immune checkpoint pathway and the immune tumor interaction underlying the re...

BackgroundGlioblastoma (GBM), Isocitrate dehydrogenase-wildtype (IDH-wt) is characterised by diffuse infiltration, with progression often arising from perilesional tissue and occult white-matter damage. We investigated whether radiomics from the T2/FLAIR-defined oedema and the structural disconnectome improve prediction of progression-free survival (PFS). MethodsWe retrospectively analysed 387 adults with newly diagnosed GBM, IDH-wt treated at a single tertiary centre (2005-2020). A deep-learni...

Cancer heterogeneity is traditionally attributed to multiple parallel signaling pathways. This belief is challenged here by proposing the ER/PR axis as the dominant pathway underlying the full spectrum of breast cancer. Absolutely quantitated ER, PR, Her2 and Ki67 protein levels were accumulated over 8 years from 1652 specimens collected non-selectively and measured with Quantitative Dot Blot (QDB) method over time. Cox analysis showed ER and Ki67 as independent adverse prognostic factors while ...

BackgroundPancreatic cancer is a leading cause of cancer mortality, and early recognition is challenging. To achieve early diagnosis using symptoms alone, we examined patterns across different stages using network analysis to derive clinically useful insights. MethodsSymptom variables from a de-identified dataset of 50,000 pancreatic cancer patients were analyzed. Stratification by stage was done, followed by bootstrap resampling to address imbalances across strata. Symptom networks were then c...

Medical oncology education faces a dual crisis: knowledge velocity that outpaces static curricula and large language model (LLM) risks--hallucination and automation bias--that threaten the fidelity of AI-assisted learning. We present Onco-Shikshak V7, an AI-native adaptive learning platform that addresses both challenges through a unified cognitive architecture grounded in learning science. The system replaces isolated educational modules with four authentic clinical workflows--Morning Report, T...

We present results from the second season of Influcast, a multi-model collaborative forecasting hub focused on influenza in Italy. During the 2024/25 winter season, Influcast collected one-to four-week-ahead probabilistic forecasts of influenza-like illness (ILI) incidence alongside influenza A and B ILI+ incidence signals. New ILI+ targets were constructed integrating syndromic surveillance data with virological detections collected weekly by the Italian National Institute of Health. Forecasts ...

BackgroundOnce the treatment starts, early prediction of treatment benefit and its correlation with overall survival (OS) remains challenging in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Existing prognostic models require long-term follow-up, limiting their ability to inform timely treatment decisions. To address this gap, we evaluated tumor growth rate (g-rate)-based survival models across multiple treatment lines to assess their ability to predict OS and support early clinical d...

The phase 1b TICIMEL clinical trial evaluated the safety, tolerability, and anti-tumor activity of combining the immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI), ipilimumab and nivolumab, with tumor necrosis factor (TNF) blockers, certolizumab or infliximab, to treat advanced melanoma patients. A higher proportion of responses was observed in patients receiving ICI and certolizumab, while patients treated with ICI and infliximab demonstrated superior tolerability. Moreover, CITE-Seq analyses of circulating C...

In the three years since Omicron emergence, SARS-CoV-2 dynamics have exhibited persistent twice-yearly waves in the United States, peaking in late summer and winter, with heterogeneity in timing and intensity across states. This semiannual pattern sharply contrasts with typical annual respiratory pathogen dynamics in the US, yet their underlying mechanisms and whether this pattern will persist remain poorly understood. Here, we tested several hypothesized mechanisms and found that a combination ...